Trade Wars & Trailheads: What The New Tariffs Mean For The Outdoor Industry
- colin7931
- 2 hours ago
- 37 min read
What else could The Rock Fight's normal Monday crew of Colin, Outdoor Industry Insider Eoin Comerford, and Producer Dave be talking about today but the recent announcement of tariffs and their impact on the business of going outside.
They start off by getting into the broader impact of the announcement and the idea that higher tariffs could drive manufacturing back to the US. Then they talk about the how the tariffs will specifically impact the outdoor industry and offer suggestions on what brands and retailers should expect ahead of the delivery of Fall 25 products.
They wrap things up with The Parting Shot where they take a look at some of the better 2025 attempts by brands to pull off an April Fools Day joke on social media including the following posts:
Eoin: The Hoka Speed Loafer
LIVSN: Adventure Pants Capital
Garage Grown Gear: Move To Analog
Gnara: Netflix n Chill Pant
Wild Rye: Ski Ballet
Darn Tough: Dating App
Skratch Labs: Marathong
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Episode Transcript:
Colin True
00:00:00.320 - 00:00:47.654
Welcome to the Rock Fight, where we speak our truth, slay sacred cows, and sometimes agree to disagree. This is an outdoor podcast that aims for the head.
I'm Colin True and strap in everybody, because today producer Dave and Owen Comerford and I will be talking about tariffs. But first, come back to the Rock Fight this Wednesday for a special guest. I teased it on Friday's episode and now it looks all but certain.
You won't want to miss it. Come back on Wednesday to check it out.
Also, come back to the show on Friday for what will probably be our typical Wednesday episode with our pal Justin Houseman.
And and then lastly, it's time for you to subscribe to both the Rock Fight and also to Open Container, the newest Rock Fight podcast that is hosted by outdoor industry legend Doug Schnitzbahn. All you need to do is tap, follow on whatever podcast app you're listening to right now and then go over to Open Container on the same app.
Do the same thing over there, but stick around. We'll be right back.
Chris DeMakes
00:00:47.742 - 00:00:51.810
Welcome to the Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight.
Colin True
00:00:55.390 - 00:02:28.054
Today's episode of the Rock Fight is presented by Oboz, who is helping us ask the question how do I love hiking? Hey, let me count the ways. Number one, Today, the oddly satisfying pain of a good hike. Muscles scream, but the heart soars.
Number two, Seeing wildlife in their element. That deer is judging your pace, but it's fine. Number three, the unspoken bond with other hikers.
That knowing nod when you pass each other on the trail. Those are three great ways that we love hiking. But do you know about Number four?
For every hike completed over a mile long during the month of April, Oboz will plant a tree as part of its Trail for Trees Challenge. For each hike completed, participants will also receive chances to win weekly prizes from Oboz and Challenge partners.
Registration is free and Open now at trails4trees.com Participants can complete as many hikes as they wish on any given day, as long as each hike exceeds one mile.
Additionally, participants will receive a virtual badge in their Trails for Trees Challenge trophy case for each trailer they complete, signifying how many trees they helped plant. Again, go to trails4trees.com to learn more.
And number five, this hiking appreciation moment is brought to you by Oboz of Bozeman, Montana, maker of the Katabatic collection that includes the Katabatic LT and the Katabatic Wind. Check out the full Katabatic footwear collection@obozfootwear.com Oboz love hiking. You're listening to Rock Flight Radio.
My God, is that Fitz's music. You know it is. Get ready for There's a Smile On My Toes.
FITS!
00:02:28.182 - 00:03:47.726
Woke up this morning feeling so alive Sunshine in my step Making my spirit jive Hope for comfort Rapping he's so sweet Dancing on clouds with every beat There's a smile on my toes every single day Cool and warm together in a brilliant place Free range toe box lets my feet sing Fits is the joy that each new step brings Deep heel pocket hugging me just right Fine gauge merino soft like the moonlight Laughing and skipping Feeling so flat and a half Happy place with every stride There's a smile on my toes every single day Cool and warm together in a brilliant play Free race Toe box lets my feet sing Fitz Is the joy that each new step brings that was.
Colin True
00:03:47.798 - 00:04:26.372
There's a Smile on My Toes from Fitz. Cause that's what whole foot comfort looks like. New spring styles are in stores now. Didn't get your orders in? No need to cry. Just send Judy.
You know Judy. Everyone knows Judy. Send Judy an email@customerserviceitsock.com and she'll turn those frowns upside down. Oh, tell your feet that we said hi.
And now back to the show.
All right, I'm here with producer Dave in the consiglierity of the Rock Fight, outdoor industry insider and Owen Comerford, both of whom are now paying 67% tariffs to join the Rock Fight every single week. I expected. I can take Venmo. Send me a check, guys. You know, I'm just taking a. I'm just taking a lesson Here, you know.
Eoin Comerford
00:04:26.396 - 00:04:32.452
67% more money, is it? 67% of what? What you pay me, Is it. Is that what it is?
Colin True
00:04:32.476 - 00:04:33.320
Oh, shit.
Eoin Comerford
00:04:33.820 - 00:04:34.852
Damn it. Yes.
Colin True
00:04:34.916 - 00:04:39.688
Yes, I forgot about that. I thought just. You put a tariff in place and you get money. Isn't that. That's what our president seems to be doing.
Producer Dave
00:04:39.734 - 00:04:42.120
And that, my friend, is called a contraction.
Colin True
00:04:45.740 - 00:05:58.240
Well, welcome to the show, guys. We have a lot to dig into. A lot has happened.
And today's opening shot, and probably most of the show is presented by Garage Grown Gear, your hub for UL natural light gear.
Learn more by heading to garagegrowngear.com and since inauguration Day, we've talked about tariffs here on the Rock Fight as they've been relevant, which at times hasn't been for very long.
But last Wednesday, the Trump administration, who, as a reminder, was voted into office largely due to an American electorate who was fed up with the high cost of basic goods. So remind everybody that that's. That's why he won.
Anyway they announced a slate of tariffs that impact basically every one of our trading partners and definitely impact the most crucial countries where large portions of our outdoor goods are. This all done with a don't worry, it will cost more, but it will be worth it promise from the leader of the free world.
So part of the announcement was a baseline 10% across the board tariff, as well as several other higher and in some cases surprising tariffs. And now we're recording this on Friday, April 4th.
So if anything new drops over the weekend, keep that in mind, is maybe why we don't talk about it, but just to kind of kick things off. Owen, you put up a summary up on your LinkedIn page last week. Can you just walk us through? Let's kind of like set the table here.
Walk us through what the more notable parts of this announcement was that came out last Wednesday.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:58.340 - 00:05:58.744
Sure.
Colin True
00:05:58.832 - 00:05:59.432
Or Tuesday.
Eoin Comerford
00:05:59.536 - 00:06:31.760
So, first of all, the tariffs were framed as being retaliatory against high tariffs and trade barriers from other countries.
But in actuality, when pressed, the administration revealed that actually those tariff numbers for the other countries that we're retaliating against that were on the now infamous two charts aren't actually the tariff numbers. They were based upon the trade imbalances with those countries. So they literally said, okay, what percent of our trade is their trade?
And figured out what the number would be.
Producer Dave
00:06:32.620 - 00:06:34.132
How did they get to those numbers?
Eoin Comerford
00:06:34.196 - 00:06:56.240
So basically, if you look at how much inbound stuff we have coming in from these countries and kind of divide it by how much we're sending to them, that sort of percentage is what drove the first column. And then supposedly the tariff that we're going, the retaliatory tariff that we're going to have, will rebalance that trade.
Producer Dave
00:06:56.730 - 00:07:08.562
I heard stories that that equation came from a simplistic prompt in ChatGPT that you could get these very same numbers if you asked it to create a simplistic way to calculate it. I'm not kidding.
Eoin Comerford
00:07:08.626 - 00:07:58.980
I know, I heard that too.
And now whether that is true or not, whether it's totally true, whether it came from ChatGPT or Grok, more likely Grok, in fairness, more likely Grok, then I think, yeah, but this is what you end up with.
But what it means is the countries where we have the largest trade imbalance, that is those low labor cost countries, are the ones that got hit the hardest. So China certainly is one. Vietnam. China at 34%, Vietnam at 46%. Bangladesh 37%, Pakistan 29%, India, 26%.
So you've got all of these Countries that are just seeing these huge changes in their tariff levels.
Colin True
00:07:59.320 - 00:08:02.032
And so kind of a who's who of the outdoor industry, too, by the way.
Eoin Comerford
00:08:02.056 - 00:10:59.056
Well, yeah, and pretty much every other industry that you know, I mean, fashion industry, fashion, apparel, et cetera. Then obviously, that's on top of that 10% base that you mentioned.
And interestingly though, Everybody gets the 10% base, even countries like the UK where we have a positive trade balance. So. Okay, interesting. But the thing to understand is all of these tariffs are incremental to the tariffs that already exist.
So depending upon what category your product falls within, you have what are called standard MFN most favored nation tariffs. And they can range from 0%, like a camp stove, 0% tariffs on that if you're bringing one of those in. But if you're bringing in rainwear, it's 28%.
And it really doesn't matter where that comes from. Unless there's a specific free trade agreement with that country, you are going to pay that 28%.
Then on top of that, if you're from China, There are Section 301 tariffs that were put in place in the first Trump administration initially, 7.5%, then raised up to as much as 25%. So those are additive. Okay.
Then on top of that, on 25 March, Trump announced the Venezuelan oil import tariff, where basically it's a punitive tariff on countries that are importing Venezuelan oil. Those countries are China, India, and Spain.
Now, it's not clear as to when that one will be implemented, but if you stack all those tariffs, and they really do stack, I did my homework here. You're looking at, for a rain jacket out of China, 132%. Okay. 132%. Now, if the Venezuelan ones don't actually get implemented, okay.
So that drops to 107%. Wow. Yeah. And if you're Vietnam, okay. Your stack is only 74%. So, you know, hey, yeah, good times.
Oh, and I'm sorry, for the China one, there was the other two 10% tariffs that happened in between. So let's say the actual fob cost out of the factory is 20 bucks. Okay.
In the past, so the tariffs on that jacket in the past, let's say out of China, would have been about 50%. So now that jacket landed is $30. Okay. Over the last two months, we've basically taken round figures that 50% and made it 100%.
So now instead of having a $30 landed cost, it has a $40 landed cost. Okay. And so realistically, in the past that $30 landed cost jacket, again, we'll take some round figures here.
Would have had a wholesale of about 60 bucks, and then it would have retailed for 120 bucks. Okay, just keystoning and keystoning.
Colin True
00:10:59.248 - 00:11:00.128
Right, Right.
Eoin Comerford
00:11:00.264 - 00:11:54.610
The big question I think now becomes, how does the extra $10 get passed up the food chain? Do brands and retailers expect to maintain their margins? Right.
Because I think most retailers won't love the idea of saying, well, okay, the keystone promise, basically, that exists between wholesale and retail. We're not going to do that anymore. But the problem is, if you do try to maintain those margins, then that $10 difference gets magnified. Right?
It gets magnified in the wholesale margin. So what was a $30 jacket is $40. So that $40 is now $80 at wholesale, and that $80 jacket is now $160 at retail.
So $10 in tariffs became a $40 price increase to the consumer.
Colin True
00:11:55.110 - 00:11:55.550
Got it.
Eoin Comerford
00:11:55.590 - 00:12:31.070
Okay. So that really is the big crux here as to how that happens.
Some brands that I'm talking to are saying, hey, listen, we're going to treat it as a tariff surcharge. And so in that scenario, then, hey, your wholesale used to be, it was 60 bucks for that jacket.
The wholesale is still 60 bucks, but we're adding a $10 tariff surcharge. Right. So we expect you, the retailer, to only charge the consumer another $10.
Colin True
00:12:31.650 - 00:12:32.154
Okay.
Eoin Comerford
00:12:32.202 - 00:13:01.160
Okay. Now that'll be great.
But realistically, from the retailer's perspective, that's tough because ultimately they still have to get a return on their inventory, and they're still having to pay that $10 in their inventory spend. Right. And so, yeah, it becomes challenging because you're asking, you're really.
Whether you, however you want to couch it, you really are sort of asking them to take less margin on their inventory investment.
Colin True
00:13:01.860 - 00:13:23.568
Right.
So before we get more into the kind of the impacts to the outdoor industry, specifically, kind of broadly speaking, I mean, this is going to impact almost every sector of consumer goods. Right. So are we getting, like, Soviet Union vibes?
Are we going to see people like, hoarding basics, but in this case, instead of like, salt and sugar, it's going to be, you know, Italian coffee and like, on running shoes, maybe?
Eoin Comerford
00:13:23.664 - 00:14:55.110
I think there is going to be a period of adjustment here where some brands are going to say, hey, listen, you know, we'll continue to sell what we have today that we brought in under the old tariffs, and they may look at it opportunistically to drive volume in the short term. And that's what happened in the auto industry, right?
Huge sales increases in March because everyone knew that the 25% tariff was kicking in, was coming.
And so you could see some of that, I think within the industry you could see some brands be truly opportunistic and just raise prices even before the new stuff shows up so that they can pad the, pad the war chest a little bit before they have to really maybe take a hit on the margin on the new stuff that comes in so that it kind of averages out a little bit. So there's lots of different ways that it may go. And then from a consumer, then are they going to be willing to accept the higher prices?
If everybody's raising prices, then it's like, hey, do you want a new rain jacket or not?
And so in that scenario, I think a lot of people will just put off a purchase, especially if what is feared is that this will actually lead to a recession.
And in that scenario, obviously there's even further knock on effects where not only do they can't afford that jacket that's so much more expensive, they're just going to not buy a jacket at all.
Producer Dave
00:14:55.540 - 00:15:10.748
So how do these new pricing structure compare to domestically made products? I mean, I know we don't have the infrastructure to scale, but there's certainly always been a price premium to that.
Are these now competitive with those options? Where does that sit?
Eoin Comerford
00:15:10.884 - 00:16:53.376
I think it depends. I mean, certainly manufacturing in the US in terms of things like apparel has generally been quite a bit more expensive. Not always.
There are some spots where you've got some pretty efficient production, especially out of la. But the challenge is just the amount of capacity that exists within the U.S. right? Most of it that is here is relatively basic.
Cut and sew T shirts, hoodies, that kind of thing. You get into the more technical product that typifies what we see in outdoor apparel, let's say, or let's packs, you name it, right?
That capability doesn't necessarily exist here in a lot of quantity. What does exist is almost all dedicated to military contracts. So there just isn't the capacity.
I mean, literally, if every outdoor brand filled up every manufacturer in the US it wouldn't even make a dent in the volume that comes in from overseas today. It wouldn't even. So that capacity just, it just doesn't exist today.
And the quality of the work that we have now out of Asia in many cases is far superior to what's here.
Just because we've lost the skills and the very specialized equipment that's needed for things like seam sealing or some of the really technical cut and sew that happens, not to mention just some of the more technical aspects around packs and other and other equipment.
Producer Dave
00:16:53.488 - 00:17:51.150
What we're talking about isn't just an industry specific. We're talking about something that is really recalculating the economics of retail beyond just our sector. Right.
And I think that's what's, what's kind of we're just part of this larger, larger story of not just tariffs. But I mean if you take it even bigger, we're really talking about kind of a 19th century isolationism aspect of what we're seeing here.
If you add on immigration and diplomacy and defense along with these tariffs, it's really separating the United States as its own entity. A ham handed isolation then. It's not the good kind. It's not like the me time kind of isolation. It's more like your dumb and mean kind of isolation.
And I don't know how well that portends for our brand of US made anything as we go forward, not just outdoor.
Colin True
00:17:51.310 - 00:17:58.250
I was gonna ask you, Dave, as a brand guy, how does this impact the US brand? Well, look, so that you just summarized it.
Producer Dave
00:17:58.550 - 00:18:16.038
Look, if you look at the 19th century, I mean this is the era of phrenology, right? And mercantilism and spiritualism's gonna come back that peculiar institution. I mean really, is this the era we wanna be modeling our future after?
I'm not sure it inspires trust in the global community, I can tell you that.
Colin True
00:18:16.174 - 00:18:31.654
Well, and it's continuing, right? It's like we said at the beginning, there's gonna be things that continue to develop.
I mean since the announcement we've had retaliatory tariffs come from China and Canada. Trump's closed a loophole that allowed fast fashion brands to ship direct to American consumers.
I mean it's just this is gonna continue to evolve for sure.
Producer Dave
00:18:31.742 - 00:19:08.450
Look again, super permissive loopholes that we've been having aren't those aren't good either. Doesn't mean that tariffs are the way to address that. And look, the industry we even more vulnerable because of the moves we've made.
We happily moved into offshoring in the 80s and 90s. We happily nation shopped to get around some of the rising costs of terrorists to put ourselves.
So it's not like we've actually put our effort into this. We saw what could happen and we chose not to do anything about it or to continue to move offshore. So we've kind of backed ourselves into this corner.
But it doesn't mean that this is still the right way to go. Yeah.
Colin True
00:19:08.450 - 00:19:09.716
It doesn't mean that can't work.
Producer Dave
00:19:09.858 - 00:19:44.892
Well, to change the systemic problems that Owen was just talking about here in terms of this is tariffs are not a short term nor a long term solution to returning American manufacturing. That is a generational issue that requires citizens, it requires business, it requires government to create mandates.
It's a knowledge transfer, it's a machine transfer. You gotta want it. And it's got. I mean, it's more like putting a man on the moon. This is really a generational culture to action.
If you want to change that. I mean, like I said, it's.
Eoin Comerford
00:19:44.956 - 00:20:33.208
But the issue is also so at a macro, very simplistic level, people say, okay, higher tariffs will bring more onshore manufacturing. Right. And you could argue that that should theoretically work.
But the problem is this administration is not doing this in a way that that will happen. Right. So first of all, in order. Because to do that, as we said, this is not about protecting an ex existing manufacturing base.
We don't have the manufacturing here today. Okay? So that means that we need a whole bunch of investment. Okay?
For businesses to make investment, they need surety that these tariffs are going to be in place over time for it to make economic sense. Nobody believes that.
Colin True
00:20:33.264 - 00:20:35.224
Nobody believes they could be gone by next Thursday.
Eoin Comerford
00:20:35.312 - 00:23:46.128
They could be gone by next Thursday. They could be gone. Let's say that the economy does tank and then suddenly there's brinksmanship and we pull.
Then let's just say the midterms wipe stuff out. And Congress basically says, well, hey, you know what?
Actually Congress is the one that the Constitution says has the power of tariffs, not the executive branch. That's only in the case of emergencies. These emergencies are all completely fabricated. So we're going to take that back.
So that could be as soon as less than two years from now or the next administration. So, you know, again, you're talking, Dave, about a generational issue. This is probably at most, you know, maybe a three, a three year issue.
But even let's say you could guarantee that it was going to be in place for at least this presidency, then you would say, okay, that gives us enough time to really get some payback on the investment to move to onshore manufacturing. But, but no, it could be next week. Who the hell knows? So that's the first thing. Okay.
The second issue is the fact that most of these tariffs apply to the raw materials that go into the products that would be manufactured here. Okay. And most of the raw materials, especially fabrics, again for outdoor apparel, are produced Overseas, a lot of it in China. Okay.
And so you've got apparel or fabrics that have 60, 70, 80, 100% tariffs on them, which then further makes American manufacturing less and less competitive within the U.S. but even on the global stage.
All right, and you could argue then, well, hey Owen, we need to have those tariffs on the raw materials to bring back the fabric mills to the U.S.
well, okay, but the problem is if you don't have the onshoring of the production, which isn't going to happen because of the high cost of the raw materials, there's never a reason to bring back the mills to begin with. So the math doesn't. Math. And then the third part is immigration, because I don't know if you've ever walked into a factory here in the U.S.
an apparel factory, but it is by and large, and not to overgeneralize, it is by and large the immigrant populations that work there from Asia, from Latin and Central America, those are typically the folks that are making those clothes. Okay. Those folks are not coming to our country anymore. They're being actively deported or they are self deporting. Okay.
And I mean you've got so shops where basically their employees aren't showing up anymore. So there is no labor, the raw materials aren't there. And then you could argue, well, hey Owen, let's just.
This is the perfect opportunity to up train a whole bunch of Americans. And I agree that would be great to have those skills and have that in place. But we've got 4.1% unemployment. Americans don't want these jobs. Right?
Colin True
00:23:46.264 - 00:23:59.240
Yeah. And that's a number that everybody says if your user on that number, that means a lot of that is electing to be unemployed.
So it's not a bunch of duster people looking for a new career path or learn a trade.
Producer Dave
00:23:59.780 - 00:24:25.610
Well, that's part of what I mean by a generational commitment that this is not one tool in the toolbox that's gonna make this happen. It's gonna have to come from all quarters.
There's gonna have to be a concerted effort over time to build that capacity, to build the infrastructure, to build the knowledge base and to make it attractive. I mean that's part of it, is making it kind of an attractive option for upward mobility.
Colin True
00:24:25.770 - 00:24:49.546
Well, just the fact that this is a punitive action, I mean, how many things, think about how many times does that work out where it's like we're going to browbeat you into making this work. Like this needs to your point, one of the first things you Said Dave.
It's like, no, if you really want to do this, it's going to take investment and bringing people along. All things that Owen just said, you got to train workforces.
This is not just like we're going to punish all these people and then magically this whole industry is going to arise from those ashes. It doesn't work that way.
Eoin Comerford
00:24:49.698 - 00:24:58.438
You absolutely need carrots as well as sticks. And that's what the CHIPS act did in the prior administration, a bipartisan act, by the way.
Colin True
00:24:58.494 - 00:25:00.450
I don't know what that is. I think that's gone now.
Eoin Comerford
00:25:00.910 - 00:25:54.546
But it was, you were saying, billions of dollars of investment in semiconductor manufacturing moving onshore here, which is really important because of those incentives. Just whacking on tariffs is really just not going to help.
And the other thing I would say is I work with a lot of emerging brands here in the outdoor space, many of them very, very sust focused and nothing would make them happier than onshoring. Right. Because if you onshore, it's so much more sustainable than shipping product halfway around the world. Okay.
It also makes manufacturing and product development much simpler too. You could potentially go and sit right with the prototype folks. I mean it makes a ton of sense.
I would love to see, believe me, onshore manufacturing. But they can't find it. They have looked.
Colin True
00:25:54.578 - 00:26:17.662
Oh, Cassie Abel was on the show on Friday talking about how they almost went out of business because they tried to be know domestically made from the get go and it just didn't work. And I think for the folks you see who are able to do it here, it's almost like you have to reverse engineer it based on what's available. Right.
It's like, okay, we have this, well, what could we make with that is almost the approach you have to take with some products versus hey, we want to create this range. Well, what are our options that are good for that range? It's like, yeah, good luck finding that here. You're not going to.
Eoin Comerford
00:26:17.766 - 00:26:47.790
And, and, and don't get me wrong, there are some, some incredible US based manufacturers. There's some incredible US based made in America brands that are doing wonderful work. I, I, I'm, I to denigrate that at all.
But the reality is most of it is relatively small volume manufacturing. Right. Nothing like the scale that you would need to replace, let's say North Face's outdoor collection.
Colin True
00:26:48.210 - 00:27:52.430
So let's kind of move into like the outdoor industry specifically here.
So according to a press release by the OIA last week, 84% of OIA members surveyed said they would be impacted by new tariffs, resulting in millions of dollars in financial losses and affecting hundreds of outdoor products.
Kent Ebersol, the president of the oia, was quoted in the release as saying these rising costs could lead to fewer jobs, less innovation and fewer options for consumers. The discourse on places like LinkedIn has been running hot, per a post by Garage Grown Gear's Lloyd Vogel.
This is unrelated to the sponsorship of the segment, obviously, but Lloyd said he spoke to many brands that sell on ggg, a fair amount of which are made in the USA brands to our other conversation and the takeaways are that demand will slow, prices will go up, and perhaps most importantly, a bad economy is bad for everyone.
Definitely some shades of early days of COVID when we were all scrambling to understand both what we should be doing and what was to come in an uncertain time.
Can we even predict or take a wild guess at how this plays out for the industry over the coming weeks or months, provided things stay the course here and it doesn't all just change course on Thursday, like we just said, what should brands be doing?
Eoin Comerford
00:27:52.740 - 00:29:22.034
Well, I mean, there's definitely a lot of gloom and doom out there. I mean, I've talked to a lot of brands. A number of them are early stage brands that are very capital constrained.
Some are concerned they will not survive this, quite frankly.
And in those scenarios, though, I'm encouraging them to really take a step back and looking at all their options and really you got to kind of come at fighting. That said, though, these tariffs are an opening salvo. I think Trump has made that clear.
And based on recent history, there is a decent chance that some will be reduced if countries make concessions. And we're already hearing that Vietnam is working on a whole raft of concessions there.
And if those countries do make concessions, I think we may see some movement. The tariffs, they're slated to go into effect on April 9, so we still have a few days before that for some of those announcements to come.
And I'm sure the administration will happily trumpet any concessions as major wins as part of this process. So that'll be the first thing I would say.
The second thing is at least these tariffs are being announced in really a shipment lull right between spring summer deliveries and fall deliveries. So we do have a little bit of time now. I get it. Some folks have product on the water and they're just kind of screwy.
Colin True
00:29:22.162 - 00:29:22.822
Speaking broadly.
Eoin Comerford
00:29:22.866 - 00:31:04.480
Yeah, but speaking broadly, the big, you know, shipment windows, we're kind of, we're a couple of months away before, you know, some of that Other stuff is on the water or here to show up. So we have a little bit of time and I would encourage everyone to, you know, take a breath and see what, see what happens.
And there are lots of things that may also happen. So countries may react in different ways. One way is the countries may help to offset some of that impact by devaluing their own currency. Right.
Because if you devalue your currency, currency exports look cheaper, imports are more expensive versus the dollar. And so they could use some of that to offset some of the impact here. Now, what I would say is you're not going to offset a 50% tariff increase.
You might nibble away at the edges 5 or 10% here, but every little bit helps. So that's the one thing I would say. I think brands are going to be talking to their factory partners and asking them to share some of the packages.
Pain, right? And so it's like, hey, if we've got to take all of this and pass it through the consumer, it's going to hurt everybody. Right?
Retailers are going to cut their orders, consumers are going to cut their sales. It's just going to mean less volume for you, the factory.
So partner with us here and let's figure out a way through this or obviously the other potential threat there is, or we're just going to have to look at someplace else. I mean, hey, India at 26% tariffs actually looks pretty darn good right now versus, you know, China at 54%.
So, so, so I think there'll be a fair amount of that, that that's going to go on.
Producer Dave
00:31:05.100 - 00:31:28.662
So, so, but, but on that, like in some sectors like footwear, where it's not as easy to move out of, that I've heard, you know, in the last couple years, we've had capacity constraints that, you know, factories are taking interviews as to what brands they want to carry at not.
And so do brands really have that flexibility to be able to pick up and move because they don't like what they're getting, or is it going to get even harder?
Eoin Comerford
00:31:28.726 - 00:33:20.930
I guess certainly over time, it's maybe not for this fall, but over time, you just look at what happened with all of the tariffs that were really piled onto China in the prior Trump administration. We've seen some major movement out of China, primarily into Vietnam over the last five or six years. So it is doable.
It isn't something you do in two months, but a year, two years, sure, totally doable. The other thing I would say is necessity is the mother of invention.
And typically when There's a tariff or there's something that's this big, there's enough money there for people to figure out a way around it. You talk about the footwear industry.
A very large portion of of footwear today in the United states that's shipped D2C from the big footwear brands is actually coming out of Mexico and is coming in. So those footwear brands, because the footwear MFN just basic tariffs are pretty high. They're like 28%, something like that.
So rather than pay that, it's getting shipped to Mexico and then Mexico is sort of the three pl and shipping it to consumers here in the US and so you've got got existing US Brands that are taking advantage of the de minimis loophole to do that.
Now, de minimis may go away and we can talk about that, but it talks to how brands and 3 PLs and logistics partners and other people, if there's money to be made in terms of offsetting these tariffs, people will figure out workarounds. Now, I think those workarounds tend to favor the bigger players who can afford to play with that.
Unfortunately, again, those emerging brands are the ones that get hit hardest because they can't afford some of that stuff.
Colin True
00:33:21.090 - 00:33:45.762
So we just spent a whole bunch of time talking about how the idea behind it and what can happen here in the US and what's not happening here or how could reshoring happen, those kinds of things. But it sounds like that that's not really what this is designed to do. These tariffs are not really designed to do that. What else is going on here?
There must be something else at play here that we're going this far with something like an initiative of this level. Like what else is going on here, Owen?
Eoin Comerford
00:33:45.826 - 00:34:23.958
Well, really, the administration show their hand because what they said was that these new tariffs that are going to go in place are going to generate $600 billion a year or $6 trillion over the next decade. The next decade is important because that is the budgeting window that we use with our Congress when looking at things like tax cuts. All right.
And so really what this is all about is saying, hey, we're going to bring in enough revenue from tariffs that we'll be able to pay for another massive tax cut that will more than likely favor the mega rich of our country.
Colin True
00:34:24.094 - 00:34:31.330
So no, no, it's for me, right? This is going to all of us in the call, we're all going to be like, ah, terrorist rule because we have so much money.
Eoin Comerford
00:34:32.430 - 00:34:45.282
We're not going to be taxing tips anymore. You know, so it's really. We're thinking of it. And I don't mean to make light of the great wait staff that help us every day.
And you know, I think you making.
Producer Dave
00:34:45.306 - 00:34:50.070
Light of the fact that they didn't pass a bill that exempted tips.
Eoin Comerford
00:34:50.970 - 00:35:53.246
It's all coming because we've paid for it. Now we're going to pay for it in tariffs.
But you see, the problem with that math is that when you slap massive tariffs on imports, what happens to those imports? They go down. They go down. So the volume of imports goes down. And so therefore what happens to the amount of tariffs you can collect? It goes.
Goes down. Right. So you can't have your kick any less money. Yeah, you can't have your kick. You can't raise tariff rates. Right.
And expect the amount of imports to remain the same. And therefore you bring in the same amount of money. More than likely, what happens here is you absolutely crush people with increased tariff rates.
Yes.
You reduce the amount of imports because either the country's in a recession or what have you, or people just move the imports to areas where the tariffs are less net. Net, though you don't get the $6 trillion, but you do get your tax bill through Congress. So it's great.
Colin True
00:35:53.398 - 00:36:06.270
Well, at least in all this, we know that we put some tariffs on Antarctica. You know, that's ultimately what was probably most important. What was that? I just saw that headline. I gotta be honest with you.
I was so angry when I saw it. I didn't dig on it. Apparently there literally was a tariff put on Antarctica. Did you guys see that?
Eoin Comerford
00:36:06.310 - 00:36:10.670
The 10% is on everybody. Right. So every. Every country in the world.
Colin True
00:36:10.710 - 00:36:11.854
All fuck you, penguins.
Eoin Comerford
00:36:11.902 - 00:36:19.662
All 194. Yeah, I'm pretty sure we even have researchers. I'm pretty sure we even have a tariff on North Korea now for, you.
Colin True
00:36:19.686 - 00:36:25.342
Know, this guy's trying to sell something into his kid. Like, hey, here's something I found in Antarctica. Like, no, you got to pay a tariff on that.
Eoin Comerford
00:36:25.366 - 00:36:26.590
No. So it's. It's. Yeah.
Colin True
00:36:26.670 - 00:37:13.312
Dear God. Okay, well, last thing I want to talk about. So about an hour before I hit record. Well, you mentioned Owen, about.
We're kind of in that lull between spring and fall. So let's look ahead towards fall 25, because.
So about an hour before we had recorded this episode, I was talking with someone who told me me that they knew someone was launching a new pack brand with their first shipment scheduled to go out next week from Vietnam. So this person is on kind of the edge of their dream coming true. Right. Conceive a brand new product line, making it happen.
And today, now they're trying to figure out if they're going to be able to afford to get their first product run in time or if they just need to shut it down. And sort of with that anecdote in mind, what should brands be preparing for as they get ready for fall 25?
I mean, I understand we have a moment here, here. If you were in their shoes, Owen, what would you suggest? Folks in that position do really talk.
Eoin Comerford
00:37:13.336 - 00:40:06.280
To your retailers, really get a sense of where their head is at. Because it's going to be tough. You think about where we are right now.
It is April, so that means all your grays, your fabrics, your trims, that's already been bought, you're in production right now. You really are. I don't know to what degree you could potentially cut back on volume at this stage.
I think it would be tough, but maybe doable, maybe for some of the later deliveries.
But yeah, because again, if, let's just say we're looking at a 10% increase across the board, it could be more like 20%, but let's just say it's a 10% increase at wholesale. Right? So then retailers have to ask themselves, okay, well, let's say I had a, I don't know, a million dollar open to buy for this category. Okay.
And brands, you know, and you could say, well, hey, there's already a, we already have a PO in place. I expect you to honor that PO Yet. I don't think that's going to happen. Right? I mean, it's going to be, yes, we're honoring that P.O.
and here's the P.O. but here is the, you know, here's the additional tariff surcharge that we're adding.
And brands did some of this in the past when all of those freight numbers were going crazy. Right. There was a freight surcharge that was added onto an existing po. So potato, potato, right.
It just means that the retailer is paying more for the product and ultimately they've got to build it into their cogs. And so it is in the inventory and therefore it is coming out of the open to buy.
So do the retailers say, well, okay, that million dollar open to buy is now a million one to cover that, or do they say, no, I've got a million dollars, so I've got to cut my on order by 10% or whatever the math is to keep under that. And I think that's, I think the more likely scenario Right. Is that they're going to have to cut back there.
Then you take into account the uncertainty around the market. And are we going to see a recession? Are we not? I think a lot of retailers are going to be say, hmm, you know what?
I've kind of seen this show before coming out at 22, where I was left holding the bag with just huge inventory gluts. So I'm going to back off here. I'm going to, you know, I'm just going to just dial back my preseason a little bit.
If I was like 80, 20 preseason versus at once, maybe I dial it back to 75, maybe 70, just to say. And, you know, and yes, okay, I'm going to lose my preseason discount. Whatever, Whatever. But I'll chase.
I'll chase in season, and I'm going to push more of that risk onto the brand. So, yeah, I think it's going to be tough.
I think brands are definitely in a tough, tough spot right now and will be for the next couple of months as these negotiations go on.
Colin True
00:40:06.740 - 00:40:22.988
All right, that was a lot. We knew this was going to be kind of a big episode with a lot. And there's still a lot of unknowns as we kind of go forward.
We could be doing this again in a couple of weeks, who knows? But as we kind of wrap it up here, Owen, how would you kind of summarize everything here?
How would you kind of bring it to a close, what we've been talking about here on the show?
Eoin Comerford
00:40:23.044 - 00:41:29.612
Well, the one thing is, I would say that really, for every brand, pretty much every competitor is facing some level of this challenge. Right? I mean, maybe they're coming out of India instead of Vietnam, and it's not quite so bad, but it's pretty bad.
And it's almost across the board to some level. And so at the end of the day, the best product is still going to win. Right?
The best product from the best brand with the best customer service is ultimately going to win if you can get through some of these headwinds. And that's a big if. I get that. I mean, we're talking about that.
I'm talking to brands that are trying to raise capital so that they can actually afford their inventory shipments for the fall. Right. I mean, those things are happening as we speak.
But if you can get over that, you will be on sort of a level playing field with everybody else, and then product will be allowed to win again. And so I think that's the key thing to keep in mind. You're not alone here. Everybody's going through this and the brands that navigate it.
The best but have the best products will still win.
Colin True
00:41:29.716 - 00:41:33.960
Well. And if you're listening to this and you want to give yourself a little pick me up, you know what you can do?
Eoin Comerford
00:41:34.260 - 00:41:35.240
What's that?
Colin True
00:41:35.700 - 00:42:03.094
You can head to garage grown gear. Who is your hub for all things ultralight? Feel like that was a good one. That was pretty good segue, guys. Ultralight backpacking.
And they've got new gear coming in all the time from small cottage and ultralight brands. New this week are the bot XL titanium pot with screw top lid by Vargo outdoors, the one person notch tent by two tarp tent and the crotch pot.
The crotch pot. The unbroken streak of great names from brands on garage Garage by gossamer gear.
Eoin Comerford
00:42:03.142 - 00:42:10.050
I think Lloyd is just fucking with us now. I think he's making shit up. He is making shit up just to make you say crotch pot.
Colin True
00:42:10.750 - 00:42:14.610
The next line in the copy is yes, you heard that correctly. Crotch pot.
Eoin Comerford
00:42:15.230 - 00:42:17.370
He made you say crotch pot twice.
Colin True
00:42:17.790 - 00:42:27.446
And by the way, it was Maggie. Maggie writes the copy over there. Shout out to Maggie at garage growing gear.
Infrared imaging confirms that your crotch area is one of the hottest parts of the human body. Dave, can you confirm that?
Producer Dave
00:42:27.518 - 00:42:28.150
I can.
Colin True
00:42:28.270 - 00:42:39.414
Okay, so why not harness that heat for a warm dinner? So that's really what this is. This is not a joke. Go to garagegrowinggear.com and check it out for yourself. Cook stuff with your crotch.
Eoin Comerford
00:42:39.542 - 00:42:41.110
That's why it's called swamp crotch.
Colin True
00:42:41.190 - 00:42:53.792
Go to garage garage garagegro.com and check out out the. The crotch. But I'm going to. You know, I. This is kind of a spoiler now. You guys know what I'm getting you all for Christmas this year?
Everybody at Rock Fight's getting a crotch pot.
Eoin Comerford
00:42:53.816 - 00:42:57.872
This is a great name. I mean, obviously it's a. It's a great take on the crock pot, but it's a crotch pot.
Colin True
00:42:57.896 - 00:43:06.980
It's like butt napkins, right? It's a great to sort of like. You nailed it. Good job on the naming, guys. Oh, that's incredible. All right, it's time for the parting shot, guys.
Chris DeMakes
00:43:07.400 - 00:43:09.860
It's time for a party shot.
Colin True
00:43:11.650 - 00:43:45.172
And we gotta do something a little more fun because that was a heavy episode.
So, as has become tradition across pretty much any consumer goods industry, April fool's day brings a whole bunch of silly pranks and posts from brands, often with varying degrees of success. You can go back and find tons of examples of attempts that are simply not funny to brands and companies.
That actually have gotten themselves into actual legal trouble because of their April Fool's Day jokes. That's a real thing. But I wanted to highlight some attempts from some brands from the past week.
Many of these folks we know, but let's take a look at these and we can rate April Fool's jokes we saw brands and other folks run this past week, starting with our own Owen Comerford.
Eoin Comerford
00:43:45.236 - 00:43:45.812
Thank you.
Colin True
00:43:45.916 - 00:43:55.540
You weren't eligible because you're on the show. We can't have you be eligible for the win here, buddy. But your post about the HOKA Speed Loafers was a prank. Nice job. You got some people.
Do you think anyone bought it?
Eoin Comerford
00:43:55.580 - 00:44:18.040
I think a lot of people bought it. I think that was the problem was that it was too believe.
So the gag was that I made up this whistleblower that said said that hocus started as an April Fool's idea last year, but instead of doing it for April Fools, the executives decided to make it this year. So that was the gag. But I don't think anybody called me out.
Colin True
00:44:18.080 - 00:44:18.696
That's probably too real.
Eoin Comerford
00:44:18.768 - 00:44:49.870
Too real. It was too real. My favorite part about it actually was though, somebody said, what are we doing for cowboys here?
And so I went to ChatGPT, put together a cowboy boot with a HOKA speed goat soldier sole. That thing looked awesome. I mean that actually it looked better than the actual. Totally.
Because actually that half rocker sole really works with a cowboy boot. And so if I have one regret here, it's that I didn't make that my April's Fools.
Colin True
00:44:50.370 - 00:44:50.778
Right?
Eoin Comerford
00:44:50.834 - 00:44:52.870
Yeah, exactly. But next year.
Colin True
00:44:53.490 - 00:45:02.692
This is a heavy topic today, the tariffs thing. So maybe we just make that the COVID on the website as your cowboy boot. You know, like, you know, tariffs in the outdoor industry.
It was just a picture of the cowboy boot.
Eoin Comerford
00:45:02.756 - 00:45:04.040
It's a good looking boot.
Producer Dave
00:45:04.940 - 00:45:07.540
Necessity is the mother of invention, we said.
Colin True
00:45:07.580 - 00:45:22.480
So yeah.
Next up, we had our friends at Livson Liveson put a post up on Instagram with a little video declaring their home of Bentonville, Arkansas, the adventure pants capital of the world. The video itself was, I gotta give them credit, was pretty funny. They did a nice job with the video. It kind of cracked me up watching the video.
Producer Dave
00:45:23.180 - 00:45:28.000
That wasn't a joke. I've actually been to the adventure Pant district in Benton. It.
Colin True
00:45:29.010 - 00:45:31.962
Do you ever try and go in there with like bland pants? It's not a good scene.
Eoin Comerford
00:45:32.026 - 00:45:32.442
No, it's good.
Producer Dave
00:45:32.466 - 00:45:34.074
It's on the corner of Adventure and Pant.
Eoin Comerford
00:45:34.122 - 00:45:36.410
Right. It's awesome right there.
Producer Dave
00:45:36.530 - 00:45:39.590
Right off the rugged freeway. You can get there. It's a great place.
Colin True
00:45:40.050 - 00:46:07.860
We've given Lloyd a lot of love on this episode. We're about to give him some more though, because Garage Grown gear. I gotta give them the award to produce. To do the most work.
To produce their prank, they did a YouTube short where they announced that Garage Grown gear was going analog. They broke out old props like old school typewriters and non wireless phones and real paper. Positive.
They did a whole sort of handheld documentary style camera work. So even though you could tell it was like the staff at Garage Grown doing this, they put some time into that. Dave, did you watch it?
Producer Dave
00:46:08.480 - 00:46:14.376
I did. I thought it was fantastic. I'm pretty sure the phone is older than everyone in that room.
Eoin Comerford
00:46:14.448 - 00:46:15.300
Yeah, right.
Producer Dave
00:46:15.600 - 00:46:20.440
The typewriter definitely was for sure. But I thought they did a great job.
Eoin Comerford
00:46:20.560 - 00:46:34.172
I have a founder who they just actually acquired another company that really was stuck in the 90s to where they were using typewriters. No, I'm not kidding you.
Colin True
00:46:34.356 - 00:46:35.916
Were they a typewriter manufacturer?
Eoin Comerford
00:46:35.948 - 00:46:48.540
No, that's the only excuse. They were actually using typewriters to fill out W2s. But whatever. I mean, it's just. Yeah, but no, actually that I thought it was great.
It actually made me feel old because I remember almost all of those things.
Colin True
00:46:48.580 - 00:47:15.446
Every single thing. Yes. The one guy had, you see the headphones he had on, like the radio, like the Sony radio headphones that he was wearing.
And I'm like, oh, man, this is. Yeah, you're right. It was really, really well done though. Good job, Garage Grown.
Next up, our friends at NARA over at Gigi's company, they debuted their Netflix and chill pants. My only feedback for that was, I get you were making a joke, but I thought kind of a good idea.
It had their, you know, the she fly zipper and a pair of like kind of sweet sweatpants. I'm like, you should just make those that look great.
Eoin Comerford
00:47:15.598 - 00:47:16.810
Yeah, absolutely.
Colin True
00:47:17.550 - 00:47:45.886
Wild Ride promised to bring back ski ballet. That's just more of a shameless promotion to go back and have you all listen to Wild Rye CEO Cassie Abel, who was on the show on Friday.
But that was a cool little video. And I didn't. I noticed, Dave, that Fitz didn't do a. A post this year.
So we got to give the sock category to Darn tough because they debuted a new dating app which is they called the Soulmate, which promises to help stragglers find connection that seeking connection, like that single sock he lost in the dryer. But no, no, no, no fit social media Play Play this year, Dave, we're.
Producer Dave
00:47:45.918 - 00:47:47.710
Not down with that foolishness, Colin.
Eoin Comerford
00:47:47.790 - 00:47:48.606
Very serious brand.
Colin True
00:47:48.678 - 00:47:50.318
Very serious. Yeah, that's right.
Producer Dave
00:47:50.374 - 00:47:50.814
Very serious.
Colin True
00:47:50.862 - 00:47:52.130
With smiles on their toes.
Producer Dave
00:47:52.550 - 00:47:53.610
That's right.
Colin True
00:47:54.130 - 00:48:38.774
But the winner, to me, that I saw was Scratch Labs, who debuted the marathong, which was a new underwearable hydration device with features like dual strap stabilization and the barely legal whale tail arrow cut. It had little, like, spots on it, so you could put your hydration, you know, handhelds and stuff on the. On the actual thong.
But the thing that made it great was they went as far to make it look like you could actually buy it. And when you go and add it to your card, it's only when you click add it to it, your cart that it then pops up and says April Fools.
So they went for actual engagement with the person looking at it. And I really hope they were tracking how many people and who they were who maybe tried to buy it, because that's hilarious. So good job, Scratch Labs.
You win this year's April Fool's Day prank. The Rock Fights official April Fool's Day prank winner.
Eoin Comerford
00:48:38.822 - 00:48:39.190
I would agree.
Producer Dave
00:48:39.230 - 00:48:42.758
And Scratch Labs, if you are listening, please send Colin a pair.
Colin True
00:48:42.934 - 00:48:45.078
Yeah, I'll wear it on every episode from now on.
Eoin Comerford
00:48:45.134 - 00:48:47.582
No, that would be just awful.
Colin True
00:48:47.766 - 00:48:59.502
I gotta get a wide shot so you guys can see me in my marathon and I could go running afterwards and be ready to go with the. What was it? The whale tail? Anyway.
Eoin Comerford
00:48:59.566 - 00:49:05.410
Yes. Where do you fit the butt napkins if you've got the marathon?
Producer Dave
00:49:07.910 - 00:49:09.182
It's all ergonomic.
Eoin Comerford
00:49:09.246 - 00:49:09.534
Okay.
Colin True
00:49:09.582 - 00:49:14.378
An obvious partner is butt napkins in the Scratch Labs marathon. I think that guy of. They go hand in hand.
Eoin Comerford
00:49:14.434 - 00:49:15.310
Absolutely.
Colin True
00:49:17.410 - 00:49:41.972
All right, guys, we can wrap it up there today. Come back on Wednesday to find out who my mystery guest is. Check out the latest from the Rock Fight podcast network.
Open Container with Doug Schnitzbahn. And the Rock Fight is a production of Rock Fight llc. Our producer today was producer David Karstad.
Art direction provided by Sarah Gensert for Owen Comerford. I'm Colin True. Thanks for listening. And Chris to Makes doesn't charge us tariffs. He's just going to the Rock Fight Fight song for free.
So we'll see you next time. Rock Fighters.
Chris DeMakes
00:49:42.036 - 00:50:43.040
Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight. Rock Fight.
Welcome to the Rock Fight, where we speak our truth, slay sacred cows, and sometimes agree to disagree.
We talk about human powered outdoor activities and big fights about town topics that we find interesting, like pop culture, music, the latest movie reviews, ideas that aim for the head. This is where we speak our truth. This is where we speak our truth. Rock fight. Rock fight. Rock fight. Welcome to the Rock Fight. Rock fight. Rock fight.
Welcome to the Rock Flight. Rock flight. Rock fight. Welcome to the Rock Fight. Rock fight. Rock fight. Rock fight.