The Rock Fight's "Producer" Dave takes center stage for a look at tariffs and the outdoor industry.
Nothing like a trade war to douse any positive retail outlooks for the coming year. Especially one as straight up dumb as the one instigated by the Trump administration. Less ‘shot heard ‘round the world’ and more of a ‘Florida Man shoots self in foot’ moment. And no, the just announced pause doesn’t change the storyline. Damage has been done, and more is coming.
The Outdoor Industry will feel this just like many other sectors. The 10% tariff on Chinese-made goods, while not as shockingly stupid as the 25% level set against those titans of adversary Canada and Mexico, will hit at the heart of our apparel, footwear and gear businesses. And this comes just as we have started to feel okay about inventory levels, media disruption, and REI. Okay, that might have been overly optimistic, too. Kind of like how one of the justifications for our new tariffs is to further the goal of returning manufacturing back to America.
Because - and this really shouldn’t need to be said out loud - applying McKinley-era (Denali?) tariffs today are like trying to fix your GPS with a brass magnetic pocket compass. The Dingley Tariff of 1897 jacked up import duties to historic highs, shielding U.S. industries from foreign competition and expanding domestic markets. It worked… sort of. Industrialists and manufacturers were the clear winners. Oh, and gilded income disparity. That won too. The big losers? Farmers and consumers who were left to grapple with higher prices on imported goods and retaliatory increases on agricultural exports. Rural economies suffered, especially in regions reliant on global markets. McKinley’s (Denali’s) tariffs boosted big business while squeezing the average American. Sound familiar? It’s the sound of history rhyming.
To be clear, the actual goal of encouraging U.S. manufacturing is not only laudable, but essential if we’re to meet sustainability and job creation needs. And in the spirit that even a broken clock is right twice a day, contained within this farce of a foreign policy is the closing of the de minimis loophole that allows imported goods under a certain value to dodge tariffs entirely and give foreign manufacturers an unfair price advantage. This is long overdue.
However, this ham-handed happy meal amounts to nothing more than a tariff tantrum.
If the government were genuinely serious about restoring American manufacturing, they’d be investing in the domestic infrastructure, targeted tax incentives, and vocational training programs required to rebuild factories, retool supply chains, and train workers. A generational commitment. Anything less is unserious and only committed to the status quo that penalizes domestic production versus promoting it.
Regardless of our industry’s deeply entangled relationship with global supply chains, and despite this week’s temporary postponement of the tariffs, a trade war it is. With Canada and Mexico. And a stern glance at China. At minimum it’s embarrassing; in reality, it will cause real pain to those who can least afford it. Perhaps history will come to call it the War of Moron Aggression. Until then, fasten your safety harness and clench your climbing pants. It’s going to be a bumpy ride!
"Producer" David Karstad is a Creative Director, Brand Strategist, Conductor and the co-founder of Rock Fight. You can hear him weekly on The Rock Fight podcast or find him holding up the walls at his favorite McMenamins.