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Today on The Rock Fight (an outdoor podcast that aims for the head) Colin & Producer Dave are joined by legendary outdoor industry analyst Matt Powell.
Over the course of his five predictions for 2025, Matt highlights the need for a shift in the outdoor industry's business model and emphasizes that the current approach of relying heavily on winter sports is unsustainable.
The discussion touches on the convergence of athletic and outdoor markets, the importance of embracing fashion within the industry, the need for inclusivity to attract a more diverse customer base, and a whole lot more.
Read Matt's latest Sneakernomics column (for even more 2025 predictions) by clicking here.
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Episode Transcript
Colin True
00:00:00.240 - 00:02:55.656
All right, everyone, before we get started today, I need to tell you about our amazing teammates at Darby Communications.
If you run an outdoor, an endurance or an active lifestyle brand, there is no better PR or digital marketing belay partner or drinking buddy than Darby. They can help your business reach new heights and you know, they might just keep you from falling on your ass.
I mean, since we started working with Darby, more and more people have been reaching out to us here at the Rock Flight because of that messaging. Look, guys, if they can help us, they can help anybody. Hit them up@darbycommunications.com do it today.
Welcome to the Rock Fight where we speak our truth, slay sacred cows, and sometimes agree to disagree. This is an outdoor podcast that aims for the head.
I'm Colin True and today the Rock Fight is fulfilling its obligation of having a 2025 predictions episode. And in order to fulfill that obligation, we're bringing in the big guns. That's right, sports industry analyst Matt Powell is here today.
But first, have you subscribed to rockfight's weekly newsletter? It comes out every Tuesday and this past week there was original content from Justin Houseman, original content from myself.
Guys, this is a real newsletter with real content, not just an outdoor link aggregator. Head to Rockfight Co and click Join the mailing list to sign up. Also, did you hear Monday and Wednesday's episode of the Rock Fight?
This week we ranked the top five footwear brands in the outdoor industry and on Wednesday we talked about the Park City Ski Patrol strike. Go back and check out those episodes if you haven't already.
And lastly, if you're new around here, we'd love it if you would subscribe and join the Rock Fight by hitting the follow button on whatever podcast app you are listening to us on. Hey, you know what else? Give us that five star rating. It really helps out the show. Speaking of the show, let's start the show.
As Bane said to Batman and the Dark Knight Rises, let's not stand on ceremony here. Mr. Wayne. Matt Pal is one of the most trusted voices in the outdoor industry.
After a career in retail, Matt became a well known analyst, which he still is today.
He wrote a blog for Forbes called Sneakernomics and was the primary voice to come out of the NPD Group before venturing off on his own to create his own consulting firm, Spurwink river in 2023. The bottom line is that when Matt Pal speaks, the outdoor industry screeches to a halt to listen.
So producer Dave and I were excited to have the chance to sit down with Matt and get his top five predictions for 2025. Look, let's not wait around for this one. You don't need to hear more of what I have to say. You need to hear from Matt.
So welcome back to the Rock Fight where today producer Dave and I sit down with Matt Powell to talk about 2025. Well, we like to think here on the Rock Fight that we're providing a new form of commentary for the outdoor industry.
But today producer Dave and I are joined by Matt Powell, who as the ultimate industry insider and analyst for the sporting good space, has filled that role better than anyone has has before or that we could ever hope to. So welcome to the show, Matt. We're very excited to hear what you think is going to happen in 2025.
Matt Powell
00:02:55.808 - 00:03:00.660
Great. Well, thanks for having me. I'm a big fan of your work and it's great to be here.
Colin True
00:03:00.960 - 00:03:02.360
Oh, love hearing that. Thank you.
Matt Powell
00:03:02.480 - 00:03:02.776
Awesome.
Colin True
00:03:02.808 - 00:03:06.180
That's a massive compliment. He didn't say you, Dave. All right.
Matt Powell
00:03:09.200 - 00:03:12.020
That was a collective you. That was a collective your.
Colin True
00:03:13.360 - 00:03:30.910
Well, I think, Matt, today we're kind of going to let you cook. I mean, you've been around the space a long time. You've seen a lot new things have happened.
History has repe and so for 2025, you sent me five predictions, five topics. So let's start with number five. Number five you had listed as the business model for the outdoors. So what's that one?
Matt Powell
00:03:31.370 - 00:06:15.780
Well, there's a whole bunch of layers to this, but the big idea is the way we have operated in the outdoor industry is deliver all the product in August and hope it snows and it's not snowing anymore in a whole lot of places. I live outside of Portland, Maine. We have a third of our normal snow so far this winter. A third.
There's a local cross country track that's much beloved that closed after 25 years because they said we are not getting enough snow to even stay open. So that strategy of buying it up front, owning it all and and filling it in as the sell through, it just doesn't work.
We haven't had a really good winter nationally since 2018 and we've had great winters after the season's over, after January 1st, but nobody makes any money if that happens. So we need to rethink that. We need to get to a 12 month kind of a business where we are able to generate more volume in the off winter season.
We're far too winter dependent and I think the approach to the business really has to change the margin Model that we're working against is the same margin model we've been working against for 50 years. And the world's a heck of a lot different than it was 50 years ago. We still are in denial about fashion.
And that's one of the other things we're going to talk about a little bit later. But we're really in denial that, that the outdoor business is a fashion business. I would argue all of retail is a fashion business.
And if you think about the hot items over the last decade, you know, 40 gallon Yeti coolers, right. Why did somebody need a 40 gallon Yeti cooler? You know, a tech bro in his Patagonia vest didn't need it. But why did he buy it? Because it was fashion.
What made Stanley Tumblers take off fashion? What made Stanley Tumber maybe slowing down now? Fashion. Right.
So, I mean, and if it weren't a fashion business, you wouldn't be wearing a ball cap in the studio. You know, I wouldn't be wearing a blue sweater. I'd be wearing a black sweater and a white shirt. And, you know, we'd all be dressed the same. And it's.
So we need to embrace it without losing the credibility of and the authenticity of what makes outdoors outdoors. So those are some of the ideas that are out there that I think in terms of a new business model we really need to think about.
Colin True
00:06:16.560 - 00:06:36.884
Is there something to be learned from. And this is a dirty word. But first of all, actually, you could be more spot on. I think we harp on it a lot in this show.
There's so much of the discourse and commentary in the outdoor space is a bubble in itself. The people, the way the inside baseball folks who talk about the industry and then the way it all unfolds in the actual marketplace.
And it's a real thing.
Matt Powell
00:06:36.912 - 00:06:37.068
Thick.
Colin True
00:06:37.084 - 00:07:06.796
It's not even like a, a thin wall. It's a big, thick bubble that we all operate in. And I do think of like. And this, this might be kind of. Tell me if this is a dumb idea.
I mean, you look at. It's a dirty word. But like the, the Shemans and the, the Sheens and the Teemus and the models that they're working under, they don't carry inventory.
They don't have the long lead times. And I understand they're. It's a dirty business. But most of fashion is a dirty business.
It doesn't mean that the way they operate couldn't be made better. Is that something we should put our biases aside for a second and kind of look at and learn from.
Matt Powell
00:07:06.948 - 00:08:04.850
Well, yes, to some extent. Again, I am not a fan of those businesses and I think they really have, you know, I think they've done a lot of disservice to the world.
And it's interesting.
You got young people out there who are, say they're, you know, they want to protect the environment and yet they're buying $9 shirts that fall apart after three wearings. And it's, you know, it's like there's a social cost to why a $9 shirt that nobody's looking at. Right.
So, but, but going back to the margin model, if instead of margins here, we have margins that are here, it allows the retailer to take more risk, it allows the brand to take more risk. It brings the fashion element into it as opposed to the control and tight budgets that we've been dealing with for the last two years.
So again, the idea of a better margin on products sold is, I think, an important one we need to think through.
Producer Dave
00:08:04.990 - 00:08:08.470
Can that be accomplished without price increase?
Matt Powell
00:08:08.930 - 00:09:16.216
No, I don't think it can. But look, I mean, price increases are relative.
You know, it's one thing, you stand at the gas station and you're watching the thing go around and you go, Holy smokes, it's 60 bucks. The last time I was here was 48. You know, we don't buy a lot of stuff that way. And I would say to somebody, what'd you pay for your last hiking boot?
I don't, I don't know. Right. So if it was 125 last time, it's 140 now.
And I'm not suggesting we do this overnight and we suddenly get, you know, thousand basis points in margin by making all the prices go up. But if we migrate towards this, you know, even about, think about the go to market strategy. It's someone says, well, the sweet spot for this is X.
And so we then de. Engineer from X to get to a wholesale price. And we, and we say, well, we can't use material because it would be X plus, so we'll use something else.
As opposed to saying, let's make a really great product and price it fairly, make good margin, give good margin to our retail partners. Everybody wins.
Colin True
00:09:16.328 - 00:09:21.100
How do you get started, I guess is kind of the question I have, you know, like, who's the person that wall?
Matt Powell
00:09:21.760 - 00:10:10.638
You know, I think, I think brands and retailers working together collaboratively, saying we both need to make more margins so that we can take more risk and would get us there.
Look, I remember when was a retailer many conversations that I'd have with brands to say, you know, you price this shoe at 65, we could get 75 bucks for that shoe. And, and, and of course the brand didn't raise the prices. You know, I think about things like accessories as a, as a great example.
You know, what, what's the price of a pair of shoelaces? You know, what's the price of a pair of insole, insoles, who knows? Right.
So, and so if, if the cost means it could be 299 and, and you can get $399 or $699. All of a sudden I'm making a lot of margin here and not.
Colin True
00:10:10.694 - 00:10:10.958
Right.
Matt Powell
00:10:11.014 - 00:10:22.702
I'm not trying to gouge the consumer. I'm not going there.
But I think again the, because the business has changed, we have to change all the elements that, that drive the business as well.
Colin True
00:10:22.886 - 00:11:12.522
Well, and I think this comes back, this could be tied back to what the outdoor industry has done so well in terms of, you know, innovation is the word that gets thrown around. But innovation to the point where there's value for it if there's, you know, if it doesn't matter.
The cost only matters as much as there's value and what you pay for. Right. You look at what's happening in the trail running market right now and these kind of the rise of these super shoes.
I mean it was not that long ago that $140 trail running shoe was pretty expensive. That was the high end.
Right now we have $300 shoes and we just did a ranking of footwear brands on the show and we put Norda in there and like, I mean what's their average? MSRP right now is like 275 to 300 or something like that. So and like that we got to have them as an IT brand that's on the rise. So it can be done.
It's just a matter to think beyond these sort of incremental changes to products. And like you give the, give people real value and they will pay for it.
Matt Powell
00:11:12.626 - 00:11:44.246
Right. Look again, the prices are relative. I think about a lot of the products that we sell in the outdoor industry and they are not luxury prices. Okay.
These are not $10,000 Birkin handbags. You know, these are, it's so there's a relativity to it that I think sometimes we lose sight of. That becomes the inside baseball part of it.
We all know that 140 is expensive. Does the consumer know that? I'd like to see some research that really says that.
Colin True
00:11:44.398 - 00:11:48.330
All right. So number four on the list you kind of alluded to, this one is outdoors without winter.
Matt Powell
00:11:48.990 - 00:13:20.946
Yeah. Again, it's wetter and warmer in the wintertime. It's hotter and drier in the summertime. How are we adjusting our products?
Let's take an iconic product like the Columbia three in one jacket, which probably is too much coat today for most customers. How do you rework that conceptually so that it's more rain and less snow and yet has the versatility that that product had.
You think about a Canada goose jacket that can be worn 15 below zero. Where is it 15 below zero where anybody lives anymore. And so why do we.
So one of the things we talk about a lot, we actually wrote a white paper on this that you move from snow to rain as an example, and you think about winter in a different way. Not the warmest boot ever or the warmest jacket ever, but a good enough jacket.
One of my good friends here in Maine tells me he's got a jacket for every 10 degrees of temperature, which is too many jackets. But that's another conversation. But that idea of this product. Product is great at 50 degrees, this product's great at 40 degrees and. And so forth.
So that you could. You really could change the way we. We go to market with. With products, because we're.
I just believe we're not going to ever have the winters that we had consistently, so.
Colin True
00:13:21.018 - 00:13:22.706
Not in our lifetimes anyway.
Matt Powell
00:13:22.898 - 00:13:24.310
Right, exactly.
Colin True
00:13:24.650 - 00:13:26.466
Dave, anything to add on that?
Producer Dave
00:13:26.538 - 00:13:46.894
No, I. I just. I think that's. That's really interesting. You know, the. The layering. Just that idea of the versatility that we've been moving towards.
You know, the whole, like whether they call it mountain to bar or just that one, one piece to rule them all, seems more likely now, at least seasonally, to be able to have something that fits into that.
Matt Powell
00:13:47.062 - 00:14:10.986
Yeah, absolutely. Look, the. Most of the.
You think about the vast number of customers who are buying a product, and the most stress they're probably going to give a hiking boot, let's say, is going from the Prius to the craft beer bar. I mean, it's. It's not like they're. They're. They're out there in extreme cond. And need maximum protection. Those don't exist, Matt.
Producer Dave
00:14:11.018 - 00:14:17.274
They turn the AC all the way up at that wine tasting. So I am telling you, I think.
Colin True
00:14:17.282 - 00:14:51.798
This is gonna be a running theme. It sounds like through some of your predictions here, I mean, it goes back to the innovation and the definition of innovation.
I mean, just first we've gotten in this Habit. And David and I, back to the time we were producing that podcast called Layers. I mean, like, this has been.
We've been saying this for more than a decade at this point of, like, yeah, stop saying that. Now you've increased the technical proficiency of a garment by, you know, 0.378%.
And telling me about your new innovation story for the season, like, all the actual problem. And the problem right now is, hey, the climate's changing. Hey, we need different seasonality in terms of when we're delivering things.
We need increased margins so we can do different things. That's the innovation solves we need.
Matt Powell
00:14:51.934 - 00:15:07.810
Yep. Well, let's talk about this innovation. I mean, you mentioned the super shoes that are. That are everywhere right now.
You know, Nike did a ton of research around their super shoe, and they claimed that people could run 4% faster in those shoes.
Colin True
00:15:09.670 - 00:15:12.382
Could you even see them go by? They were moving so fast.
Matt Powell
00:15:12.526 - 00:17:07.866
I know. And look, 1% of the US population has run in the marathon. 1%. And probably 1% of that 1% is the market for a shoe that can make me run 4% faster.
You bet most of your Rican warriors runners are. You know, they're just trying to finish the three miles, let alone do it 4% faster.
So, you know, we, again, we get so hung up on the extremes out there of. Of innovation that. And ultimately, could carbon plate inserts have a more commercial appeal down the road? Perhaps.
I don't really see a path there, but I'm not going to say no, there's no path. You know, to me, one of the things that's really critical about innovation is freshness, newness, things I haven't seen before.
And again, not necessarily technical technological breakthroughs, just a new way to build a rain jacket as an example, or even just the new materials.
And by the way, in the activewear world right now, there's tremendous innovation going on in the fabrics that are happening, but they aren't necessarily. Fabrics are going to make you perform better. They're just a nicer hand, a better wicking warmer, or maybe a little warmer or not.
It's so we sometimes confuse innovation with just these massive product leaps into the future. And to some extent, it's just about new and fresh.
If I come into your store and let's pick on Merrill here, and I'm looking at Moab 3.0, which is really not much different than Moab 2.0, certainly not cosmetically, and I've got a pair of 2.0s that haven't worn out. Why am I going to a 3.0. Right. It's. You don't need it.
Colin True
00:17:07.938 - 00:17:08.710
Great question.
Matt Powell
00:17:09.490 - 00:17:12.666
Unless you somehow you've ruined the shoe or. Or the.
Producer Dave
00:17:12.738 - 00:17:12.970
The.
Matt Powell
00:17:13.010 - 00:17:16.004
The new shoe truly is an update. Right? Yeah.
Colin True
00:17:16.162 - 00:17:17.648
You're really into the Moab.
Producer Dave
00:17:17.824 - 00:17:49.810
Well, the whole, you know, iteration versus innovation we've been dealing with for a long time and long time. And to your point, though, about that.
We've been trained as brands to tell stories, and I wonder if consumers have been trained to receive stories about innovation that, like you said, that peak performance always leads the storytelling of the retail cycle. Right. And is that. Is that going to continue or does that also need to change in order to evolve this business model?
Matt Powell
00:17:51.030 - 00:18:47.300
I think it has to change. I mean, I think good enough is a great concept. Now, we need to dress that language up there a little bit.
But the idea of good enough is perfectly appropriate for most people. And so again, I think I always say this about the athletic side.
You know, the brands need athletes performing at a high level, wearing their products. It gives them authenticity and credibility.
The same thing happens in outdoors, although we don't have star athletes to the same extent as we do on the athletic side. But that doesn't mean that every kid thinks he's going to be Steph Curry or every kid thinks he's going to be a champion rock climber. So it's.
I think we need to come up with a new brand language here that helps, really helps explain what good enough means and that it is, in fact good enough.
Producer Dave
00:18:47.680 - 00:18:57.992
It seems that might dovetail with also this effort for a more inclusionary kind of marketing and brand again, where the pinnacle isn't always the norm.
Colin True
00:18:58.056 - 00:18:58.280
Right.
Producer Dave
00:18:58.320 - 00:19:07.828
That we set this weird expectation that you've got to be able to climb without oxygen at 14,000ft in order to be an outdoor person. Person.
Matt Powell
00:19:07.964 - 00:19:09.320
Right, Exactly.
Colin True
00:19:09.820 - 00:19:15.320
Well, on the heels of that good segue into number three on your list, Matt, which is the convergence of athletic and outdoors.
Matt Powell
00:19:15.980 - 00:19:33.560
Yeah. And I think this is a really positive trend for the industry.
I've been a bit of doom and gloom here on the first two, but this one I think is a bit more positive. We're seeing more and more color in the marketplace. Tre. I even commented after Tre, maybe too much color.
Colin True
00:19:35.580 - 00:19:37.524
Looking like a true Mainer, you know?
Matt Powell
00:19:37.612 - 00:21:46.460
Exact. But I think that we see much more athletic colors. The shoe wall in an outdoor store used to be brown with a little green and maybe a little black.
And now it's pop colors, bright colors, athletic colors. Products are lighter. They're not as heavy and Stiff as they had been much more athletic.
Again, I think trail running is an interesting convergence here between. Between athletic and outdoor and has applications for both. Maybe different end use, but still applications for both.
And then the cadence of product releases again, not buying everything in August and praying for snow, but bringing in freshness through the season. That gives a consumer a reason to come back to your store again and again.
I read a study the other day that said that Zara, the fashion retailer, the consumers Visit there like 17 times a year because it's a different store 17 times a year. I'm not suggesting we do that. That's not executable.
But if there is something new and fresh every time I come in, that's a reason to go back as opposed to hitting him once and I'll see you next year. And I think collaborations, although it's been overdone in the athletic side, I think there's some room to think through that in outdoo.
You know, I just think there's a whole bunch of really important elements from athletic that if we go back 20 years ago, you know, the businesses were not equal but they were relatively parity. And now athletic is here and outdoor is still basically here.
So I think there's some really important lessons to be learned and I think people are learning them.
And I really, it was a really eye opening show for me at Tre to see so many hiking shoe brands there making more athletic product and different products than they're normally known for. So I think we're moving in the right direction there.
Colin True
00:21:46.580 - 00:22:14.706
I'm curious your takeaway because that was.
That's an interesting example of Tre, especially with the inclusion of switchback and the outdoor side of it into bringing outdoor into a historically athletic event. You know, David's take it away, taken take away from that show was that the switchback side, switchback side seemed a little slow.
Is that the nice way of putting it, Dave? Right. It was a little. It was not.
You know, all the action was happening on the running side and then you kind of got into the morgue which was the outdoor side. Was that your takeaway as well?
Matt Powell
00:22:14.858 - 00:23:00.250
Yes. And look, the running business is really good right now and so I'm not surprised that the running had more attention than the outdoor side.
The outdoor business is still really challenged, but I think having people there and exposing them to brands that maybe they wouldn't have seen before or thought about before is, is the right way to go. And, and again, hopefully we begin to inject some of the learnings from athletic into outdoor and, and, and see that drive that business forward.
I just, I think it's going to be real interesting when Switchback separates out next summer. And, and what does that show look like? Who goes to that show? Who shows as a brand? Who shows up as a retailer? I'm really interested to see that.
Producer Dave
00:23:01.480 - 00:23:11.780
What I wanted to get into this, you know, this athleticization. Again, this is not a new concept. I'd almost say we're almost in like 2.0 or 3.0 of the athletic outdoor.
Colin True
00:23:12.120 - 00:23:14.368
Merge, or I'm point 5 outdoors.
Producer Dave
00:23:14.384 - 00:23:31.380
20 years ago we had. Everything was mountain athletic and you know, the ultralight was all athletic and again, shoes were starting to fuse.
But is there anything you think that we have learned from that that we can bring to this, or are we still just going to continue to beat our head against the rug?
Matt Powell
00:23:32.840 - 00:25:14.520
You know, I'm not sure we've really learned it. You know, I think, I think brands have taken the proactive approach.
But I'll give you one thing that I think we learned and that is, and we saw this back in the or show days that all athletes run to train, whether you're a kayaker or a rock climber or wherever. So running as part of your training regime.
And outdoor retailers figured out that by adding running shoes to the mix, even though it's not pure outdoors, they were able to get an additional sale out of their customer and by the way, a return sale because running shoes do wear out and have to be replaced. So I think we did begin to learn some of that.
And most athletics, I mean, sorry, most outdoor stores you go into today have an element of athletics, athletic footwear anyway, in the mix. So. But I'm not sure we said, okay, that worked, what's next? And sort of took it out to the next level.
I would argue that every outdoors person is doing some studio kind of work, whether it's yoga or Pilates or Zumba or just lifting weights or just lifting weights. And so CrossFit. And so again, there's a reason, you know, if I'm an outdoor retailer, I'm carrying yoga wear. Yeah, I gotta have yoga wear.
It's gotta be. And you know, Vori has made a place for themselves here. Prana had a place in the back in the day.
Rourke is kind of crossing over between the two things. So there's some interesting stuff happening on the apparel side as well.
Colin True
00:25:14.900 - 00:25:55.006
I think I go back through, frankly, the running theme through this is that opportunity and I think the takeaway from like your, both of your experiences that switchback of this. Of the outdoor side being boring. I think that's not the reflection on the. The show or the. Or. Or even kind of the. The activities.
I think it's just the. The industry. I think we kind of need a Kool Aid man moment of, like, who's gonna come busting through the wall? Like, who could have showed up?
Someone should have showed up to Switchback and said, we're the cool outdoor brand at Switchback. That was. You know, who did that? Did anybody put themselves on display and be like, oh, did you go over and see what so. And so was doing?
I think, Dave, you and I talked about this in our recap.
Producer Dave
00:25:55.118 - 00:26:13.950
We did. I would. I would say, you know, Merrill brought the. The trade aspect to it. Their booth was pretty impressive. Their displays.
I mean, they really leaned into where the technology running Fusion, you know, whether that translates to their external communication or not. But I thought they at least tried.
Matt Powell
00:26:14.030 - 00:26:14.318
Problem.
Colin True
00:26:14.374 - 00:26:50.826
Right. It's like we talked about on our footwear episode last earlier this week. Like, it's a. There's still me, you know, like, they've tried.
They're always trying stuff, and it's like you have to remind yourself of, like, they are doing weird collabs and showing up at trade shows. But then you're still Merrill, you know, like, who is the fresh brand at Switchback?
And that wasn't just two sales reps sitting at a round table looking at their phones and showed up in a real way, you know? And I think. And I think that's the opportunity. And it's funny, Dave, you bring up what happened in the early 2000s.
It was like, that's when outdoor was at its zenith. Cool. And I was like, oh, let's integrate athletics. And now the athletic side of outdoor has, like, zoomed past the original outdoor.
Producer Dave
00:26:50.858 - 00:26:51.066
Yeah.
Colin True
00:26:51.098 - 00:27:04.530
It's like, who are. You know, it's such a tired conversation for outdoor industry people to be complaining about Buhari showing up. It's like, yeah, well, guess What?
They're a $5 billion brand that's eating your lunch right now. Like, I mean, I would be mad, too, but not why you're mad.
Matt Powell
00:27:04.870 - 00:27:56.054
Yep. And, you know, you actually bring up an interesting. Another interesting angle on this, which is that the.
The retailer has to open up their minds a little bit here as well. And, yeah. You know, I would tell you that if you talk to most retailers in the outdoor industry, they'd say, y. We're really Safe with Moab 3.0.
And you know what? There's no mark down there. And it's a good steady seller. But that's not changing the world.
That's not bringing in a whole new group of customers, maybe, or getting people to buy a second pair of shoes or a third pair of shoes. It's just doing the same thing over and over again. And that's the definition of insanity.
So expecting some kind of other result is like, well, nope, that going to happen.
Colin True
00:27:56.142 - 00:28:11.318
So some, some of the criticism we got on our top five footwear brands was more like, oh, it's a, it's a safe list. And by this was being said by people who are part of some safe brands.
And I'm like, yeah, well, listen, we had to choose from who we had to choose from, you know, like, make it cooler next time for us.
Matt Powell
00:28:11.374 - 00:28:19.094
But I, I actually, I, I one, one criticism that I did rated that I agreed with was I think Solomon should have been on the list.
Colin True
00:28:19.182 - 00:28:27.112
It should, we should have mentioned him. That was my only defense is I don't think they would have made the cut on the five that we put together.
But we should have at least said their name at least once.
Producer Dave
00:28:27.216 - 00:28:32.232
Totally. That was right afterwards. Realization, what did we do?
Colin True
00:28:32.256 - 00:28:45.544
I can't believe I've had, I don't know, eight or nine. Like, what about these guys? Emails or texts or. And that's the only one. I'm like, ah, we really should, we really missed that one.
But we did the beginning episode. We said, we're gonna miss some here, guys.
Producer Dave
00:28:45.672 - 00:28:46.660
That was it.
Matt Powell
00:28:46.960 - 00:28:49.704
Well, that's why, that's why I don't do lists. Okay?
Producer Dave
00:28:49.832 - 00:28:51.340
Right. Yeah.
Colin True
00:28:54.860 - 00:30:36.480
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Livesyn. Own less, live more. All right, number two on the list is fashion is not the F word.
I think, I think we've been talking about this the whole time, but I want to hear your thoughts on this one for sure.
Matt Powell
00:30:36.940 - 00:31:49.800
Yeah. Well, again, we said, we kind of started out talking about this, that retail is fashion. Okay?
You go to Target and you pick a box of facial tissues that are going to match your towels, all right? That's a fashion decision. Okay. And again, the reason we're not all wearing black pants and white shirts is because it's fashion.
And, and my fashion might be different than yours, but it's all fashion. And Nike, by the way, did this for decades. They did not want to talk about fashion.
They wanted to talk about the sport and the athlete and performance, even though the vast majority of the shoes that they sold were never worn for their intended purpose. And I don't think the outdoor industry has fully gotten away from that yet.
And again, if you think about the hot items over the last few years, the few bright spots that it's been about fashion, you know, I got a, I had, I had a Stanley Tumblr. Now I got to buy an OG Wallace tumbler. And it's like, you know, but those are, those are things that can make your season if you, if you do it right.
Producer Dave
00:31:49.920 - 00:32:13.950
Well, and to that point, you think to the two of the brands over the last few years that have made a kind of hockey stick in road. Hoka and Kota Paxi came in with a traditional product with a little spin, but more about the color, right? And their color story.
I mean, Hoka did bring the maximalist. So I'll give them innovation piece. Right. But still, it's a running shoe. Right?
Matt Powell
00:32:15.130 - 00:33:02.332
And Hoka was so focused, though, on the Maximo cushioning and ultra runner, and only when they made the shoes look less bulky and they didn't change it.
This was the brilliance that Gretchen Weimer brought to the thing was they actually just brought the upper down onto the outsole, make the outsole look so big, and all of a sudden that shoe tipped over from being kind of a niche product to being a fashion product. And that's where the money is. Sportswear is where the money is.
If you're only going to talk to the true user of the product, you can have a nice business, but it's going to be a little business. If you want to be a big player, you've got to be able to talk the fashion game.
Producer Dave
00:33:02.526 - 00:33:03.260
Right.
Colin True
00:33:04.040 - 00:33:21.696
Coming up on a year on, you know, fashion isn't of our business from Patagonia. Does that, does that stick in a bad way to them or is that just sort of.
Again, that's another inside baseball thing where people like me who are complaining about it, but at the end of the day, it does seem so, because you have to admit at some level you're producing your products the same way as fashion brands. So there's a crossover.
Matt Powell
00:33:21.808 - 00:33:59.080
So, so, and again. Right. And they, if, if everything was made in black, then I would really believe that they, they thought that. Right.
And I think it's a bit of an affectation. But look, it's also part of their story now. I think Patagonia has lost a step in the industry. I don't think they are the darling anymore.
They certainly are the poster child for sustainability and corporate credibility. But the product is tired. And again, in a fashion business, you can't be tired and expect to win.
Colin True
00:34:00.260 - 00:34:15.400
So maybe the, the, the, the threat to them by taking that stance is almost like if you really believe that, then you're, you might be in for some tough times. Because actually what you need to do is make something that people want to buy again.
Matt Powell
00:34:15.700 - 00:34:45.456
Exactly, exactly. Or buy the next version.
And look, think about a, a brand like arc'teryx, who has really done a masterful job of straddling the true extreme high performance wear with sportswear. They've done the best, you know. You know, yeah, it's, you know, my wife just bought a jacket. She calls it a raincoat.
And I'm like, okay, hate that she called it a raincoat, but that's what she's going to use it for.
Colin True
00:34:45.528 - 00:35:26.314
I think the goal of any of these brands should be to. How do you pull yourself out of the outdoor credibility conversation?
The fact that arc'teryx is so clearly a technical outdoor brand, but I don't really see them as an outdoor brand with all the other outdoor brands. I mean, Rumpel's another one. It's like you're a blanket brand. Right. Who plays in the outdoor space.
There's not a lot you can do to like, you know, like Dave mentioned Coat Epoxy. Well, we saw the Coat Epoxy is now selling their jackets in Costco.
And there's a lot of people who see that in the industry who go, oh, can't buy from them anymore. They've lost their authenticity.
And isn't your goal would be to pull yourself out of that conversation, of that authenticity conversation, just be like, no, you're just accepted for who you are because you're so legit. That's what arc'teryx has done.
Matt Powell
00:35:26.482 - 00:35:28.350
Right? Right, Absolutely.
Producer Dave
00:35:29.170 - 00:35:51.090
Well, and just, just to kind of circle back on this, you brought up, you know, Nike doing this originally. That. Yes. They, they never admitted the fashion. They only promoted the sport. But they merchandised like fashion. Right.
So it was, it was a wink and a nod because they were bringing color and trend and special makeup. I mean, they were. Are leading the way with that.
Matt Powell
00:35:51.470 - 00:35:58.806
Yeah. Although there was a time when, when it really tipped over there and they clearly said, we are in the fashion business now.
Colin True
00:35:58.878 - 00:35:59.254
Sure.
Matt Powell
00:35:59.342 - 00:36:08.598
Right. So but you're. I agree with you.
They, they, they did like Arcteryx did a great job of straddling the authenticity while being a huge sportswear retailer.
Colin True
00:36:08.774 - 00:36:28.220
Well, I think that's probably why it was interesting.
I was a little return to form of the, their ad campaign during the Olympics that got everyone up in arms kind of, you know, like, you know, which is exactly, you know, someone is sitting there just laughing like, this is exactly what we wanted, you know, to have everybody focused on this conversation and not talking about our, our terrible decision. Decisions in direct to consumer.
Matt Powell
00:36:28.380 - 00:36:29.360
Exactly.
Colin True
00:36:30.820 - 00:36:40.520
All right. Number one on the list. Matt Pals 2025 top five predictions. Outdoors must shed its elitism or be doomed to always being a marginal business.
Matt Powell
00:36:41.870 - 00:40:10.280
Yeah. So let's frame it up this way. If we think about the biggest brands in the outdoor space, Columbia, North Face, Timberland and so forth. Merrell.
They're the most democratic with a small D brands out there. They're making products for everyone. And, and that's how they got to be big too often.
And by the way, all of the specialty Sports industry, retail that I track has this elitism problem. There are retail stores that are started by enthusiasts who happen to be a cyclist or a kayaker or a runner.
And they really, at the end of the day, only want to do people who are like them, them. And. And it becomes that. I know a good old boys club. Everybody comes in and talks about what they're doing and it's. And they've turned people away.
You know, I have. I have so many people who tell me, I want. I wanted to just buy a bike to ride casually. And I went into the bike store and.
And you know, it looked like I. The guy looked at me like I'd stepped in something on the way coming in and said, you know, they didn't, they didn't want to take my money.
And so that is sort of elitist attitude of, you know, this is for us, by us. It's not for everybody. We're really special. I have no problem with that.
But don't expect to be anything of scale if you're going to be that way because there's just not enough of the purists out there. And by the way, that's another purist, is another. There's a purity test that I think happens in the outdoor industry as well. You know, do you. What?
You know, I. I remember when I joined npd, which grew out of Leisure Trends, and one of the. One of the guys that I. First people I met said, what do you do?
And I said, what do you mean, what do I do? He said, what do you do for fun? I. I cook, you know. He said, what do you do outdoors? And I'm like, my Facebook page says avid indoorsman.
Okay, I don't do any of this stuff. And. And he was like horrified. You know, I hadn't. I clearly failed the. Coming in because I was not of the tribe, if you will.
And you know, I just, I think that's part of the other reason the outdoor industry has been sideways for so long. Is it again, the inability to open up the tent to bring in more, more diverse people. I remember I made a presentation to the outdoor retailer.
I don't know, this is probably 10 years ago now. The NSGA did a whole study on the Hispanic consumer and sports.
They talked about how what a fruitful vein addressing the Hispanic community for both athletic and outdoor retailers would be based on their preferences of things that they like to do. You know, I don't think we see that happening in this space at all where there's a high emphasis on the Hispanic Consumer as an example.
So there absolutely is an elitism here. And to me, it's an anchor on the business.
Producer Dave
00:40:11.620 - 00:40:58.440
Again, that's been a topic for quite a while in that.
And this kind of inclusion movement, I'm going to call it, is focused on the participators in terms of bringing them into the tent, but that doesn't happen unless we open up the insides of these brands. To your point, meeting the cultural differences of why people go outdoors and how they enjoy outdoors is so vast and so different.
It's impossible for a kind of monocultured brand to, to meet that authentically. Right. And it's just, it's something. It's a much harder. It's not harder. It's just going to take resolve to do it.
And you have to try to try to make the, the business decision to do it. No, I just find that that's interesting.
Matt Powell
00:40:58.600 - 00:40:59.406
Yep.
Colin True
00:40:59.568 - 00:41:22.610
Yeah.
I think on the elitism side, your point about, you know, the kind of the niche side of the business that wants also to be, that wants to be elite, but also be large, we're going to call that, I guess the Rafa corollary. Right. Rafa, who establishes itself as high end, like super rich guy cyclist brand. But we're going to put stores everywhere.
Like, be as big as possible. Like, it's so weird that didn't work out, right?
Matt Powell
00:41:22.730 - 00:41:24.550
Exactly, Exactly.
Colin True
00:41:24.970 - 00:41:45.374
All right, guys, well, I think we could wrap it up there. Matt, thanks so much for coming on. Hope we can have you on again.
Really appreciate obviously your insight, but doing it for a long time and, and it's great to get some more depth in this. And I'll definitely link to your article on this topic in the show Notes of the podcast over on LinkedIn.
Everyone give Matt a follow if you're not already. And if you're not already, like, what are you doing? Like, you know, why are you listening to this podcast? You don't follow Matt Pal?
Like, what the hell?
Producer Dave
00:41:45.462 - 00:41:49.422
I always look forward to your post for sure. I think there's a lot of people do, too. Yeah.
Colin True
00:41:49.486 - 00:41:51.422
Like, Matt Pal's coming in hot today.
Producer Dave
00:41:51.606 - 00:41:54.014
Yeah. Right, right. That's what I'm looking for.
Matt Powell
00:41:54.182 - 00:41:54.942
Yeah.
Colin True
00:41:55.086 - 00:41:57.368
But thanks for coming on, man. I really appreciate it.
Matt Powell
00:41:57.534 - 00:42:01.508
Yeah, thanks for having me. This is a lot of fun. I'll be happy to come back anytime.
Colin True
00:42:01.684 - 00:42:36.222
All right, that's the show for today. What do you think? We want to hear what you think.
Send your feedback on this and every episode of the rock fight to myrockfightmail.com be sure to come back next week to the Rock Fight for another outdoor industry focused conversation on Monday and then back on Wednesday where we dig into the headlines to come out of the outdoor adventure community. The Rock Fight is a production. Rock Fight, llc. I'm Colin recording this from a hotel room. Thanks for listening. And here he is to take us out.
It's Krista makes, the voice of the Rock Fight who will now sing for you and your listening pleasure the Rock Fight fight song. We'll see you next time, rock fighters.
Chris DeMakes
00:42:36.286 - 00:43:36.370
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